1st Round NFL Mock Draft v1

The NFL Draft is officially less than two weeks away and the upcoming weeks will be filled with smoke screens and potential trade ideas from major media outlets. We were patient in putting out mocks this year so we could ensure our grades and potential landing spots weren't biased by pre free agency mocks. Below is our official first mock draft based on what we think the NFL Front Offices end up going with.

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1st Overall Pick - Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams / QB / USC

USC’s star QB has been at the head of draft boards for about two straight calendar years and nothing has changed here. In his last two seasons he’s thrown 72 Touchdowns and just 10 Interceptions while displaying arm talent that many compare to the NFL’s top current QB Patrick Mahomes. In 2023 we saw a slight regression after the Notre Dame game but that shouldn’t move you off of Williams, he’s the clear favorite to go 1.01 (-8000) and we’re not going to overthink this one.

2nd Overall Pick - Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels / QB / LSU

2023’s Heisman winner has ascended in the last few months and now seems like the favorite to land in DC when just a few months ago he was being looked at as a fringe top 5 pick. Jayden Daniels put up video game numbers at LSU last year despite the underwhelming record. His frame is slightly concerning but the open field shiftiness and ability to extend plays is undeniable. 5,000 yards of offense and 50 total TD’s in 13 games screams franchise QB upside and I have a hard time seeing him slip out of the top 3.

3rd Overall Pick - New England Patriots

Drake Maye / QB / UNC

For the past few years we’ve been talking about Caleb Williams vs. Drake Maye but after some concerning tape in 2023 (Missed throws, dip in TD/INT rate, lower comp %) we’re seeing Drake Maye take a marginal fall. Just like Daniels he’s a tremendous athlete that can extend plays with his legs. He’s going to take some time to develop at the next level but the arm strength and pure athleticism is worth the high draft capital. The Patriots are by no means in "win now" mode and can afford to let Maye develop appropriately.

4th Overall Pick - Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr. / WR / OSU

Like Williams, Maserati Marv has been the top at his position for some time now and we have a hard time seeing him slip out of the top 5. His contested catch % and low amount of missed tackles forced are slightly concerning but the tape on Harrison Jr. speaks for itself, he is an elite talent that will instantly elevate an NFL offense. He was doubled nearly 1/5th of the time, pretty telling of how high his ceiling can be. The Cardinals bring in a true game changer out wide in an attempt to reignite Kyler Murray and their offense.

5th Overall Pick - Los Angeles Chargers

Malik Nabers / WR / LSU

A pair of LSU teammates in the top 5 is very much in play and after Jim Harbaugh & co. parted ways with long time tandem Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If any receiver has a case to go above Harrison Jr. it’s Malik Nabers. He finished top 3 in the NCAA in most major statistical categories for WR’s including; Yards per Route Run, 1st Downs, Yards, TD’s. Nabers is undoubtedly a top 10 pick and very likely going to hear his name called within the first two hours of the draft

6th Overall Pick - New York Giants

Rome Odunze / WR / Wash.

Odunze absolutely destroyed man coverage last year at Washington. He was the only receiver to eclipse 1,000 yards against man and led the league in total receiving yards. His routes take a little longer to develop but his seamless change in direction combined with elite body control projects very well at the next level. I expect Odunze to quickly catch on regardless of where he lands and personally would be my WR2 in this class. The Giants have more holes than just a playmaker but adding a legit top 10 talent on the outside is a must for them moving forward.

7th Overall Pick - Tennessee Titans

Joe Alt / OT / ND

The Titans might as well sprint up to the stage if the top 6 falls like we have it. Alt has put together a couple excellent seasons at left tackle for the Fightin’ Irish, accumulating over 2,200 snaps on the line in 3 years and allowing just 1 sack in his last 25 games played. He’s a legit 6’8 / 325 and put on quite a show in the speed/agility categories at the combine. He’s a proven pass protector and can boogie in the run game, Alt is a lock for the top 10.

*TRADE* 8th Overall Pick - Minnesota Vikings

JJ McCarthy / QB / Mich.

Every year we see a QB ascend within the last two months of the draft and this year is no different. Chargers new head coach Jim Harbaugh called McCarthy’s pro day one of the best he’s ever seen, and held nothing back when it came to ranking him with other prospects, “He's the best quarterback in this draft”. McCarthy is much more than a game manager, making big plays with his legs and hitting tight windows in clutch time. I’ve seen knocks on trusting the pocket and escaping quickly but if he continues to be accurate and is provided a decent offensive line I am not overly concerned. The Vikings play the "waiting game" in this scenario and use that extra draft capital to secure their future QB who doesn't need to start right away.

*TRADE* 9th Overall Pick - New Orleans Saints

Olu Fashanu / OT / Penn St.

This guy is an athletic freak, plain and simple. Olu possesses a fascinating blend of speed and power but has legitimate concerns regarding his technique and in game balance against highly skilled pass rushers. He’s still raw as a prospect and has significantly less games started than some of the other top tackles, but the breathtaking potential is going to be hard to pass up on for some tackle-needy teams. The Saints are in a desperate spot to bring in a true pass blocking left tackle and dip into 2025 to get this trade done.

10th Overall Pick - New York Jets

Brock Bowers / TE / UGA

The Jets added some veteren pieces to their offensive line and while I think theres still a chance they can take a versitle piece in the trenches, they inevitably cant justify passing on Bowers at 10. He is far and away the best tight end prospect in this class and before the last few months was heavily considered to be the second offensive weapon off the board. He’s a difference maker after the catch and puts defenses in a tough spot figuring out who to match onto him and his sub 4.5 speed. There are concerns with his ability to block but we don’t see that side of his game at a problem at all, if he does slip in the draft i’m certain some teams will regret it.

11th Overall Pick - Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner / EDGE / Bama

As you can tell, the defensive side of the ball isn’t as star studded as it’s been in the previous couple drafts, specifically at the EDGE rusher position. Dallas Turner produced at a high level for one the colleges best defenses over the past few seasons. His combine numbers also helped his stock, running a 4.46 with an 91% percentile 10 yard split. He’s smart with leverage and can easily convert his speed into power. The worry for me is his ability to disrupt the run game but still feels like a safe top 15 pick with a relatively high floor.

12th Overall Pick - Denver Broncos

Quinyon Mitchell / CB / Toledo

The first player off the board from a non-power 5 conference is Senior Bowl standout Quinyon Mitchell. The Broncos have a multitude of needs but outside of QB addressing the CB2 role is essential. PFF had Mitchell as their highest graded corner of the 2023 season. He has a prototypical NFL frame for his position and showed that off at the combine with an excellent 4.33 40 and astounding strength in the weight lifting drills. Mitchell is fine in man or zone and has the ball instincts and recovery speed that solidify his status at the top of this class.

13th Overall Pick - Las Vegas Raiders

Taliese Fuaga / OT / Oregon St.

Fuaga is a menace in the run game, flying into the second level frequently with a mauler mentality. His aggressiveness and fire has been labeled both a plus and minus trait, to me he has the embrace of the trenches that every coaching staff can appreciate. The last few draft profiles I've seen have all gone out of their way to boast his NFL ready frame and ability to establish leverage. Both him and Latham are plug and play picks out the gate and his ferociousness seems to match the Raiders new identity.

14th Overall Pick - Chicago Bears

Jared Verse / EDGE / FSU

The Bears made a splash trade for Montez Sweat last year but still need to add to that pass rush if they want to come out swinging in 2024. We had Verse as a top 20 pick last year and nothing has changed since. He's an explosive athlete with a polished tool belt, especially his ability to fight the hands at the line and use his motor to get into the pocket. Verse had consecutive seasons with a pass rush win rate above 21% (top 5 both years). He'll benefit heavily from an experienced vet opposite him and has a good chance to be the top pass rusher of this class.

15th Overall Pick - Indianapolis Colts

Terrion Arnold / CB / Bama

Arnold in the last month has seemingly cemented himself as one of the top corners in this class. He's physically imposing with a high IQ in press man coverage. Arnold possesses the closing speed necessary to thrive on the outside and plays downhill in the run game. Two months ago I was hopeful that he would be around at 31 for SF, now it seems very unlikely that he'll make it into the 20's.

*TRADE* 16th Overall Pick - Buffalo Bills

Brian Thomas Jr. / WR / LSU

Disrespectfully known as “The Other LSU WR” Thomas Jr is easily at the top of the next tier of wide outs. When watching Thomas on film it seems like he's moving differently than others. It could be the 4.33 speed or the short area quickness that creates space to beat man coverage but it’s hard to miss his 6 '3, 205 frame. Brian Thomas Jr will be in that mid to late first round range and could see himself paired up with a great QB because of it.

17th Overall Pick - Jacksonville Jaguars

Nate Wiggins / CB / Clemson

Nate Wiggins is a lightning bolt on the outside with his sub 4.3 speed and can be physical at the line of scrimmage, a couple of traits that play very well at the next level. He's smooth in the secondary, timing routes and throws on the outside consistently. His frame could use some work but he has all the tools to play Corner at an elite level for a long time.

18th Overall Pick - Cincinnati Bengals

Troy Fautanu / OT / Washington

Washington made it to the college football championship for a reason, they had some DUDES in the trenches and the best of the bunch was Troy Fautanu. He is being seen as a player who can start all over the offensive line, something that in today's game is beginning to be valued more and more. Fautanu allowed just 3 sacks in over 1,300 pass blocking snaps in college, this type of consistency while also being able to boogie in the run game makes him one of my favorite linemen in the class.

19th Overall Pick - Los Angeles Rams

Byron Murphy II / IDL / Texas

With the sudden announcement of Aaron Donald retiring, the Rams have a need at defensive tackle, specifically someone who can create pressure through the middle. Byron Murphy’s 36 hurries last season ranked 2nd in the country amongst Interior Defensive Linemen, the reason that number is so impressive? He was the only player in the top 10 of that category with less than 300 pass rush snaps. He is a polished rusher that moves bodies in the middle of the line, utilizing freak athleticism and swift hand technique to quickly gain leverage

20th Overall Pick - Pittsburgh Steelers

JC Latham / OT / Bama

The Steelers still needing to address offensive tackle in 2024 has to have their fans a little exhausted. Latham definitely fits the bill physically as he stands 6’6 / 345 with a sub-5 40 yard dash. He’s a polished right tackle with just 4 QB hits allowed over his 27 starts the past two seasons. He features strong hands and the ability to wipe out edge rushers in the run game. His high IQ gives me no doubt about that he can start right away for a team looking to contend in the AFC North.

21st Overall Pick - Miami Dolphins

Jer'Zhan Newton / IDL / Illinois

No defensive tackles tape flashes quite like Newton’s. His ability to use technique and leverage, especially by fighting the hands of opposing lineman was extremely impressive at the college level. He has 3-down ability and intimidating closing speed. His stature is a slight concern but the pass rushing upside due to a versatile package makes him a dream fit for teams looking to generate pressure up the middle.

22nd Overall Pick - Philadelphia Eagles

Cooper DeJean / DB / Iowa

DeJean has been such an interesting follow throughout the Pre-Draft process. Some experts think he’s a corner and others think he’s a safety. I think he’s just a versatile football player. DeJean is as good an athlete as you’ll find in this draft and carries traits that show he could be successful at either backfield position. Depending on what team takes the former Hawkeye, I believe we’ll see him start out at corner and potentially make his way to safety. The Eagles need competent pieces in the secondary, he'll fit where the scheme calls for.

23rd Overall Pick - Atlanta Falcons

Kool-Aid McKinstry / CB / Bama

If you would have asked me where Kool-Aid would land a year ago I would've been stunned if it was outside the top-10. He is a physical corner (Sometimes too physical) that makes receivers earn their keep. The ball skills combined with smooth change of direction make him a threat at all times. He will need a little more polish in man coverage but he's a field general and reliable piece in the secondary.

24th Overall Pick - Dallas Cowboys

Amarius Mims / OT / UGA

The Cowboys offensive line has been a plus for essentially the last decade and with the departure of two starters they'll be looking to get a little deeper in this years draft. If you’re looking for an NFL ready frame Amarius Mims is your guy. He is a raw prospect with only 803 offensive snaps over 3 years at Georgia, but the former 5 star has a very high ceiling with effortless power.

*Trade* 25th Overall Pick - San Francisco 49ers

Graham Barton / OT / Duke

When watching offensive lineman you naturally end up using a lot of the same vocabulary to describe strengths, outside of Fautanu I haven't seen a lineman gain consistent leverage like Barton. He is another multi-position prospect who I personally think can be a massive difference maker as a guard. If you’re running a zone scheme and need a big guy to use his base to displace and move upfield Barton is a seamless fit. The 49ers get a day 1 starter at RG with potential to fill in at other spots if needed.

26th Overall Pick - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Laiatu Latu / EDGE / UCLA

Laiatu Latu had to medically retire after a 2020 neck injury but came back and tore up the PAC-12 these past two seasons turning in a total of 85 tackles (39 TFL) and 23.5 sacks. He plays with an intense motor and has a quick first step off the line that often leaves tackles in the dust. If teams deem Latu fully cleared from injury one team is going to get a steal towards the end of the first round.

27th Overall Pick - Arizona Cardinals

Jackson Powers-Johnson / IOL / Oregon

The first round center is always a controversial one to explain, but after watching what Creed Humphrey has done with the Chiefs when he slipped to them in the 2nd it's fair to expect a team to take a sure-fire starter. JPJ was a brick wall at the senior bowl and looks to be an anchor at the next level as well, feels like an instant plug and play.

28th Overall Pick - Seattle Seahawks

Darius Robinson / EDGE / Mizzou

Darius Robinson is a physically imposing pass rusher weighing in at 285 at this years NFL combine. He'll be used all over the line as he has experience both inside and out on the edge, with the athleticism to set the edge and the power to create pressure through the middle. His closing speed isn't exceptional but versatility and his pass rush technique will make him an impact player at the next level.

29th Overall Pick - Detroit Lions

Chop Robinson / EDGE / PSU

Some see Chop as a one trick pony with a limited pass rush profile being extremely reliant on his motor and bullrush. I personally think a 3 down edge rusher that makes an opposing line work hard drive after drive is a valuable piece in today's game. He’s an athletic freak that would heavily benefit going to a team with a star rusher with +technique. No team would be a better fit than the gritty Detroit Lions.

30th Overall Pick - Baltimore Ravens

Tyler Guyton / OT / Oklahoma

The Ravens lost three offensive lineman from last years 13 win team. Guyton's frame is NFL ready and his ability to truly protect in the passing game will fit Monken's scheme that frequenlt sees WR's spread out. He does need to improve in the run game, specifically getting that first step advantage and moving in space. Guyton's power and ability to anchor down in the pass game is what will get him into the 1st round.

31st Overall Pick - Green Bay Packers

Jordan Morgan / OT / Arizona

Jordan Morgan is a vet and has played over 2,100 snaps on the line at Arizona over the last 3 years. His last two seasons at left tackle saw him only allow 3 sack, although he doesn't have ideal arm length for the outside. At 6'5 / 311 theres a chance we can see him bounce inside and utilize his swift movement in the zone.

32nd Overall Pick - Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Worthy / WR / Texas

The talk of the combine was Xavier Worthy and his record breaking speed that captivated the NFL community. He’s going to be mislabeled as just a burner because of this but his tape displays a smooth and fluid feel to the game. His top speed is unprecedented obviously but the rate at which he gets there is also jaw dropping, the route package needs work but he’ll have a day 1 role. Just to be cliché, could you imagine this guy with Patrick Mahomes?

Written by: Vincenzo Sciacqua (@RaiderVince28) || Ryan Mobley (@MobleyRyan)