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Writer's pictureZach B

UFC 254: Nurmagomedov vs Gaethje (Picks and Predictions)

UFC 254 brings us the long awaited return of Khabib to defend his belt and undefeated record once again. Last time we saw him fight was over a year ago, so I know all of us here at Upside Play are stoked to see him in the Octagon again. He's facing a tough Gaethje, who has been fighting great lately with his last 4 wins coming via TKO. It will be very interesting to see if he can avoid the dominant wrestling of the champ and be the one to end Khabib’s dominant reign. We also get to see the former Middleweight champ Robert Whittaker fight once again after his well fought win over the talented Darren Till. Whittaker’s opponent is no slouch though, Jared Cannonier has finished all the opponents in his way so far since moving down to Middleweight and has already caught the eye of Middleweight champ Adesanya. We’ll also get to see the rematch of Cutelaba vs Ankalaev which ended very controversially last time, hopefully we’ll get a decisive ending to that one this time. The prelims have some interesting fights too, one of them including the return of the 7’0 skyscraper Stefan Struve versus the always fun to watch Tai Tuivasa.



*Photo courtesy of UFC



Main Event: Nurmagomedov (-330) vs Gaethje (+270)

We’ve all been waiting for the next appearance of the great Khabib and now the moment has come. It’s been expected for a long time that he’d end up fighting Tony Ferguson, but after Gaethje systematically destroyed Ferguson in a Lightweight Interim Title fight, it became clear who the true number 1 contender was in the Lightweight division. Gaethje has been on an absolute tear after suffering from two tough losses. Now he’s on a four fight winning streak all consisting of KO or TKOs. Gaethje brings some good wrestling and takedown defense to the table and of course his great striking. Khabib has been the king of the lightweight division sporting a 28-0 record and shouldn’t need much introduction. He’s basically gonna maul you like a bear and generally the best opponents can do is simply try to survive. While I think Gaethje is a great fighter and has very impressive striking, I personally have a hard time seeing this go any other way than previous Khabib fights. Poirier was supposed to have a black belt in jiu jitsu and that was gonna turn the tables against Khabib, it didn’t. There are talks about Gaethje having good takedown defense and I’m sure he does, but so did Conor before the Khabib fight. This of course is MMA we are talking about and at any second anything can happen. I don’t think it's impossible for Gaethje to pull off some crazy win over Khabib, but I personally find it unlikely. I think Tony brings more danger to the table against Khabib here honestly, but now I’m not sure if we’ll ever get to see that fight. I see this fight going pretty similarly to past Khabib fights, maybe Gaethje will manage to stay on his feet more than previous opponents, but the constant pressure the champ brings will be a lot for Gaethje to overcome.


Zach Fight Winner: Nurmagomedov ll Zack Pick: Nurmagomedov via SUB


Co main event: Whittaker (+100) vs Cannonier (-120)

Cannonier has been on a tear ever since his move to middleweight, finishing 3 pretty legit opponents by knockout. Whittaker is the former champ and was a great one until he faced many tough injuries and surgeries. Adesanya absolutely picked him apart in his last loss, it’s hard to say that he has fully returned to old form since those surgeries. Looking into the stats Whittaker is definitely the more active fighter with 4.51 strikes landed per minute versus Cannoniers 3.72. If Whittaker is able to take control of this fight and show that he is back to his true form, I believe he will be able to handle the dangerous Cannonier.


Zach Fight Winner: Whittaker ll Zach Pick: Whittaker via Decision


Volkov (-155) vs Harris (+135)

With Volkov’s superior height and reach, he understands how to outstrike opponents without getting touched a whole lot himself. Something surprising about these guys is that Volkov has 17 more professional fights on his record while being 6 years the younger to Walt Harris. With this extra experience, Volkov has been able to fine tune his skills to a greater extent than Harris. When it comes to striking, Volkov has the clear advantage and even has an impressive KO win over the great Fabricio Werdum. I could see this fight going similarly to the one Volkov had against Derrick Lewis but for Volkov’s sake hopefully it doesn’t end in a last second KO against him this time. Harris no doubt has the power to put the lights out at any moment, his last three wins have all came by TKO.


Zach Fight Winner: Volkov ll Zach Pick: Volkov via Decision


Ankalaev (-275) vs Cutelaba (+235)

Last time these two fought it ended in quite a controversial way. It seemed that Cutelaba was feigning being rocked to lure in Ankalaev to be aggressive, perhaps trying to set up the perfect counter punch. The unsuspecting ref took this as him truly being hurt and knocked out essentially on his feet and ended the fight. Looking back at it, it was truly a ridiculous call by the ref, but at least we get to see these two exciting fighters run it back. Both of these guys can be on the verge of a big run toward climbing the ranks of the Light Heavyweight division. Ankalaev has won the last 4 of 5 with a current 4 fight win streak, whereas it's been up and down for Cutelaba winning his last 3 of 5.


Zach Fight Winner: Ankalaev ll Zach Pick: Ankalaev via TKO


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