UFC 257 Picks & Predictions

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2021 is here and so is the first pay per view event of the year and boy is it a big one. Conor McGregor is set to make his return and finally have a rematch with the much improved Dustin Poirier. I'm extremely excited to see these two go at it again as Dustin has made an insane amount of progress since their first fight and was even the interim lightweight champion for some time. Conor is still Conor of course and really needs no introduction, but he’ll be looking to get back on top of the lightweight division since it seems Khabib might not be returning.

We also get to see the UFC debut of Michael Chandler which is just insane. One of the best champions of all time in Bellator is finally here in the UFC and now it's time to see what he is all about against the best of the best. He will be fighting the lengthy and very technical striker that is Dan Hooker. Hooker is coming off a loss to Poirier which was an absolutely insane fight in which he showed heart and talent, but ultimately came up short. There are many other exciting fighters on this card including Amanda Ribas who is coming off her dominant win over Paige Vanzant, and many more who we all are excited to watch. Grab your popcorn and your wallet, this is gonna be a good one.

Main event: McGregor (-330) vs Poirier (+260)

As said in the intro this has been a long anticipated rematch of two great strikers. The first time they fought it was at the time of the rise of McGregor, while Poirier was a promising up and comer, it was simply not his time yet, McGregor TKO’d him inside one round. I think this time around can be VERY different. Poirier has done great things since their last fight and has seen significantly more cage times considering he’s fought 13 times since their last engagement compared to McGregor's 8. He's taken down great fighters like Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje, also beating the former champ Eddie Alvarez. His last fight was crazy and he put on a beautiful striking display against Dan Hooker. He had won 5 fights in a row before running into the unstoppable Khabib. His striking especially has clearly come a long way since the last fight. McGregor on the other hand is coming off a dominant first round TKO over long time contender Donald Cerrone. McGregor still has possibly the best boxing in the UFC. He is not without weaknesses though. He still hasn’t proved that he wont gas out and considering how improved Poirier has become perhaps this fight could make it to the later rounds in which it could become super interesting. Poirier’s last fight was a 5 round war in which he proved he can go the entire 25 minutes. When you look at the stats, you will see quite a lot of similarities. Their significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute are very close to each other. {(McGregor: 5.43 landed, 4.40 absorbed) (Poirier: 5.57 landed, 4.18 absorbed} Poirier’s stats are actually slightly better, but obviously stats don't show the whole story, I still think McGregor's boxing skills are still greater than Poirier’s, but Poirier is absolutely no slouch. I’m going to have to take McGregor ultimately in this rematch, but if the fight reaches the championship rounds, I could easily see Poirier taking some rounds late and making it interesting.

Moneyline: McGregor ll Pick: McGregor via TKO

Co-Main Event: Chandler (+100) vs Hooker (-120)

The oddsmakers have this one pretty evenly matched and I’m gonna have to agree with them here. Chandler is a 3 time lightweight champion for Bellator and he should never be underestimated. He may be 34, but he still seems to be going strong, coming off two KO wins over Sidney Outlaw and Benson Henderson. Chandler has both crazy knockout power and world class level wrestling. Dude is simply jacked and will clearly have the strength advantage in this fight. However, Hooker stands at 6 feet tall compared to Chandler being 5’8. Hooker also has a 4 inch reach advantage. This could make life extremely difficult for Chandler if Hooker is able to manage the distance and stay on his feet. Hooker has shown very promising striking with wins over Felder, Iaquinta, and Vick all in a row before running into Dustin Poirier. He has shown that he can also end fights on the ground too with 7 wins coming by submission. With all this said, I believe Chandler will have a clear advantage in the grappling, and Hooker will have the advantage when it comes to striking, but we still shouldn’t underestimate Chandler in the striking either. If I have to go with my gut here, I'm picking Chandler due to his all around skills and championship mentality. I believe he will be able to end this fight by TKO whether it's on the feet or the ground.

Moneyline: Chandler ll Pick: Chandler via TKO

Joanne Calderwood (-120) vs Jessica Eye (-120)

Another fight the oddsmakers have very closely matched with this one coming in as completely even. These two fighters have quite a lot in common. To start, they are both 34 years of age. Secondly, they have the same height and reach, coming in at 5’6 and 66 inch reach. They are both coming off losses and are looking to get their names back to the top contender conversation. Calderwood was supposed to have a title shot with the current reigning flyweight champ, Valentina Shevchenko, but when that fell through momentarily, she risked that opportunity to go ahead and fight Jennifer Maia. She would come to regret this decision and Joanne would end up losing to Maia by armbar submission and lose the chance to fight Shevchenko. Eye, on the other hand, has had a go at the current champion. To sum it up, Eye got her lights taken completely out in the second round. To be completely honest, I’m not sure if I’ve seen anything from either fighter that would make me think they have the tools to beat Shevchenko, but this should nonetheless be a very close and competitive fight. Both are known for high level striking with Eye specializing in boxing and Calderwood in Muay Thai. I expect to see a fire lit inside Calderwood as she knows she was as close as you can get to having a title shot and I am sure she wants to get back to that position which is why I will pick her to win this very closely matched fight.

Moneyline: Calderwood ll Pick: Calderwood via Decision

Amanda Ribas (-330) vs Marina Rodriguez (+260)

We got two Brazilian fighters here ready to duke it out and this should be another good one. Both fighters only have 1 loss in their careers with Ribas' coming early in her career and Rodriquez’s coming in her most recent fight. I think this fight will depend on where it takes place. If it stays on the feet, Rodriquez has a real chance to out point or even finish Ribas. However, if it goes to the feet, there’s a good chance Ribas with her black belt BJJ will be able to lock in a submission and finish the fight. While the oddsmakers don’t have this one quite as evenly matched, I still believe this fight could go either way, but for my choice, I’m going with the red hot Amanda Ribas.

Moneyline: Ribas ll Pick: Ribas via SUB

- Zach Binsfeld, Upside Play

* All Odds Via: ActionNetwork.com

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