UFC 259 Picks + Fight Breakdown

* UFC 259 can be purchased via ESPN+

UFC 259 is coming up this weekend and it’s set to be one of, if not, the biggest events of the entire year….. and it’s only March. We got three insane title fights lined up and on top of that even the prelims got some household names fighting. The headline of the event is Adesanya coming up to the Light Heavyweight division to challenge Jan Blachowicz for the title and attempt to become another double champ. The co-main event is the return of the double champ Amanda Nunes, defending her featherweight title for the second time. She will be facing Megan Anderson who has proven to be no slouch in the women's featherweight division, but indeed has a very very tall task ahead of her. The third title fight of the night is Petr Yan making his first title defense against the red hot Aljamain Sterling. We will also get to see long time vets like Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez on the prelims. All around whether you are a purist or just a casual fan, this event will have it all.

Main Event: (C) Blachowicz (+185) vs Adesanya (-235)

Alright I'll address the elephant in the room, I was way wrong about the Adesanya vs Costa fight. Unfortunately, Costa came into that fight with an insane amount of arrogance and completely underestimated probably one of the most skilled fighters ever to come to the UFC. Clearly even if he didn’t come in with that level of arrogance, he did not have what it took to beat Adesanya which honestly was extremely disappointing. What's crazy to me is that Kelvin Gastelum put up such a better fight against Izzy, but as we all know, MMA math just about never works. Clearly Izzy has improved a lot since that fight and has covered up many holes he previously has had. Have I learned my lesson of picking against Izzy though? No. I believe in Jan and the Polish power he possesses in those two fists of his. The thing is, Izzy is going up in weight class. This doesn’t always turn out as expected for many fighters. Max “the best boxer in MMA” Holloway is a good example of this. At the time he was dominant in the featherweight division and the UFC gave him a chance at the interim lightweight title against Dustin Poirier. I thought Max had a real chance in that fight, well that didn't go as planned. He got completely pieced up by Poirer in a dominant decision loss. He just simply did not look the same at lightweight as he did in featherweight. Now it’s possible Izzy can make a seamless transition to light heavyweight, but it simply isn’t as easy as the oddsmakers think. Izzy still has the height and reach advantage over Jan, but Jan is a bit closer than most of the fighters Izzy has recently fought standing at 6’2 with 78 inch reach. The fight stats overall favor the Auckland Stylebender. Especially at strikes landed per minute, strike accuracy, and strike defense. Something that Jan can threaten with is the takedown and we will see if he truly tries to use that in the fight, as we haven’t seen Izzy taken to the ground very often at all. Logically speaking the smart choice would be betting on Izzy, but this isn’t about logic, this is MMA, and I will be taking the underdog champion, Jan Blachowicz.

Moneyline: Blachowicz ll Pick: Blachowicz via TKO

Co-Main event: (C) Nunes (-1000) vs Anderson (+600)

I don’t really have much to say for this one. Amanda Nunes is simply the best women’s MMA fighter of all time and Megan Anderson is a good fighter who has had her ups and downs throughout her career. The oddsmakers have Megan at an insane underdog and I would simply have to agree with that assessment. Megan does boast a pretty decent height and reach advantage with her being 6 feet tall with a 72 and ½ inch reach. At the end of the day I don’t think that will be enough for her to beat the dominant Nunes. Saturday Amanda Nunes will increase her fight win streak to 12 in a row and show the world she's still the most dangerous female on the planet.

Moneyline: Nunes ll Pick Nunes via Decision

(C) Yan (-115) vs Sterling (-115)

The oddsmakers have this one at even, and while I do think this can be a very competitive and good fight, I believe Yan should still be the favorite here. Both fighters are in the middle of some great runs with Yan being on a 10 fight win streak and Sterling on a 5 fight win streak. When looking at their resumes and stats, Yan clearly has the advantage in the striking, but with Sterling’s 8 career submissions, he will have a clear edge in the grappling. Neither are any slouches when it comes to the opposite field though. Yan boasts an 88% takedown defense and Sterling has out struck great strikers in the past. Thanks to Yan’s superior striking and phenomenal takedown defense, I am going to have to pick him here and in his first title defense. If you've never experienced the champ throw hands, check out the video below.

Moneyline: Yan ll Pick: Yan via TKO

Video Via: Elite Fight Club https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZBhYdrkmHA_a52RXmRujHA

Cruz (+105) vs Kenney (-135)

We get the pleasure of seeing Dominick Cruz fight once again ever after the number of injuries he sustained and the back to back losses. I would still consider Dominick Cruz the GOAT of the bantamweight division of the UFC and it’s too bad that his reign of dominance was cut short due to injuries. Here we get to see him fight again, but to be honest, I could very much see this fight not going his way. Casey Kenney is quite a bit younger and has a pretty decent resume, especially considering he is on a 3 fight win streak. I’m sure prime Cruz would be able to handle this fight easily, but the recent form we have seen him in suggests this fight won't be easy at all for him. Honestly I hope I am wrong here, but ultimately I have to choose Kenney as the winner of this bout.

Moneyline: Kenney ll Pick: Kenney via Decision

Extra Picks:

Makhachev (-375) vs Dober (+285)

Moneyline: Makhachev ll Pick: Makhachev via SUB

Santos (+130) vs Rakic (-160)

Moneyline: Santos ll Pick: Santos via KO

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Written by: Zach Binsfeld / Upside Play