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The NFL Awards have been one of the more captivating offseason bets outside of super bowl futures over the past couple seasons. Typically by the end of the year we see Vegas close off their lines as most of these awards are considered unanimous, that's what makes this year so unique. I’d argue that 3 awards are down to a 3 horse race, and while I might have my feelings on who the absolute favorite is, I wouldn’t be calling for a highway robbery if it went another way. For the love of being transparent with our readers I will also post my preseason pick for these awards along with who I think is now going to be taking home hardware this year, enjoy.
Photo Via: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Most Valuable Player Award
Preseason Pick: Lamar Jackson // Preseason Odds: (+2000)
Postseason Pick: Patrick Mahomes // Closing Odds: (-500)
I’m going to double up on my transparency here, I am completely biased on this one but the odds make me feel validated. In early 2020 buddy who is a die hard Eagles fan proposed a simple gentlemen's bet, “Jalen Hurts will be the NFL MVP by 2022-23’ season”. While he just missed out on an eternity’s worth of bragging rights I have to give Devin respect for this take and how close he was considering the leagues outlook on Jalen at the time. That being said, Mahomes was an offensive juggernaut all season and did it after losing a top 3 WR in the game. There wasn’t another QB that came within 500 passing yards of him, he accounted for the most total TD’s in the NFL, had the highest scoring + yards per game offense in football. When given a clean pocket he had a 75% comp %. The only knock here is the TO bug, but numbers were essentially up through most of the elite guys this year and this is a clear “the good outweighs the bad” situation.
Coach of the Year Award
Preseason pick: Nick Sirianni // Preseason Odds: (+1800)
Postseason pick: Brian Daboll // Closing Odds: (+300)
Coach of the year feels like it is the most up in the air NFL award this season, and if you’re an Eagles fan don’t get mad at me because I was riding with Sirianni from the get go. What Brian Daboll has done with the Giants is just extraordinary and deserves an immense amount of praise. The Giants preseason win total was hovering right at 6.5-7, their odds to make the playoffs? +268. The biggest knock on Daboll and the reason I think he might not receive the award is his record against playoff teams: 2-6. The Giants did become one of the premier rushing teams overnight and made sensational use of some unknown receivers throughout the year. Their offense added nearly 50 yards more of offense per game and 6.3 more points per game in 2022. Sirianni closed as the favorite (+163) and Shanahan is right on his tail (+188). The main argument against these two is how well their GM’s did in putting a masterful team on the field, but in my opinion Sirianni should’ve won last year so I can’t be upset with him taking it home now.
*Side Note: If Howie Roseman doesn’t win exec of the year we riot.
Offensive Player of the Year Award
Preseason Pick: Stefon Diggs // Preseason Odds: (+3000)
Postseason Pick: Justin Jefferson // Closing Odds: (-780)
This one seems clear as day, there could possibly be an argument for Tyreek Hill or Christian McCaffrey but there is just no way JJ gets snubbed after the immaculate year he put together for Minnesota. He led the league convincingly in receiving yards, receptions, YAC among WR’s, and 20+ yard receiving plays. He set an NFL record in the process for most receiving yards through a player's first 3 seasons. He was simply sensational and a matchup nightmare almost every week, he will certainly be warranting a monster contract sometime very soon.
Defensive Player of the Year Award
Preseason Pick: Nick Bosa // Preseason Odds: (+1300)
Postseason Pick: Nick Bosa // Closing Odds: (-900)
Finally a hit, and for my hometown team. Nick Bosa was the driving force behind this top ranked SF defensive unit that put together so many breathtaking performances. He led the league in sacks by a 2.5 sack margin, was 2nd in tackles for loss, and had 7 more QB Hits than any other player in the league. He was about as “Clutch” as a defender we’ve seen in a long time, ceiling multiple games with either a timely forced fumble, sack, or that Raiders bull rush resulting in a pick in OT. Jed York is in some trouble now because Bosa is going to get PAID, and there's no chance they let their DPOY walk. For the record if I had a vote on who finished in 2nd it would be Maxx Crosby.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Award
Preseason Pick: Treylon Burkes // Preseason Odds: (+1400)
Postseason Pick: Kenneth Walker // Closing Odds: (-130)
I had to look like a complete idiot at some point in this exercise and this is definitely it. There wasn’t a single second of the season where Treylon looked like he would even remotely compete for this award. Nobody was overwhelming this year offensively despite having a clear cut winner last season in Ja’Marr Chase and two exceptional candidates in 2020 in Justin Jefferson and Justin Herbert. This year on the other hand seems to be up for grabs for 3 guys. The most likely scenario is Garrett Wilson or Kenneth Walker, with a sneaky far-fetched possibility of Brock Purdy getting some votes. Walker is the odds on favorite as of now and with 1K rushing yards, 9 TD’s, 0 TO’s he’s likely the guy. Breece Hall is the “what could have been” of the group as he started to turn up before tearing his ACL. I do feel for Garrett Wilson who had a very strong season despite dealing with an all time QB carousel.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Preseason Pick: Aidan Hutchinson // Preseason Odds (+450)
Postseason Pick: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner // Closing Odds: (-1200)
I didn’t incorporate a ton of PFF research into this list but as a rookie Sauce had the highest defensive grade in the league for a cornerback, not amongst rookies, in the entire NFL. He was everything the Jets thought they were getting at #4 in the draft and more. According to Playerprofiler.com, Sauce led the league in pass breakups (21), allowed just 1 TD all season, and was 7th in catch rate allowed. He was a clear runaway winner here and there's not much else to say.
Comeback Player of the Year Award
Preseason Pick: Saquan Barkley // Preseason Odds: (+1600)
Postseason Pick: Geno Smith // Closing Odds: (+175)
The last award in this segment and the one my fellow Bay Area fans might hate me for the most is Comeback Player of the Year. Look, we all know what CMC did for the 49ers this year is almost unprecedented, and he’s closed as the favorite, but Geno Smith should be taking this one home. Geno finished the year 1st in comp %, 8th in passing yards, 4th in TD’s thrown, and 4th in passer rating. He did this all with a very lackluster O-line in front of him. This was his first year starting the majority of games for a team since 2014 and he put up excellent numbers and led them to a playoff bid, Geno deserves his flowers.
* Sources used:
- Ryan Mobley / Upside Play
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