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Upside Play's Playoff Pick Em: Divisional Round

Writer's picture: Ryan MobleyRyan Mobley

Creator: Matt Ludtke | Credit: AP


#6 Los Angeles Rams (10-6) @ #1 Green Bay Packers (13-3)


Current Lines: GB -6.5 || O/U 46

The classic battle of an elite defense vs. an elite offense is finally here. Los Angeles takes the cake for highest rated defense in the game. The Rams earned an ugly 30-20 victory out in Seattle last week. Aaron Donald suffered a rib injury which gave many fans a scare, but will suit up and apparently feels ‘no pain’ heading into the Saturday matchup. Defensively this Rams squad has ranked among the top of most major defensive stat categories including the least yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. Starting QB John Wolford left last week’s game with a neck injury which forced regular starter Jared Goff into the game just one week after surgery on his throwing hand thumb. Goff has gotten the nod this week as well, expect to see a lot of quick short passes to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The good news offensively is Cam Akers has solidified himself as a legit volume back. He carried the ball 28 times for 143 yards and a TD last week, a solid average of 4.7 yards per carry. This week is going to be all about time of possession and defending the pass, if the Rams can dominate those categories we could be seeing a #1 seed fall.


You guessed it, probable MVP Aaron Rodgers and his potent pass game are the headliners for the NFC’s top offense. Rodgers was a man on a mission this season after the front office decided to take QB Jordan Love in the first round. He posted godly numbers in 2020 throwing for 48 TD’s with just 5 interceptions, he also ran the ball for 3 more scores and posted a league high 84.3 QBR. His top weapon Davonte Adams led the league in TD receptions, was 5th in receiving yards, and 3rd in YAC despite missing 2 games during the season. Oh and I almost forgot about their dynamic RB duo of Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams. This offense is absolutely loaded and they’ve proved all year long they can score with the best of em’. Green Bay also had a sneaky above average defense that had 2.6 sacks per game and ranked in the top 10 of yards allowed per game. Green Bay needs to take the run game out of the picture early and force Goff to throw, that combined with the best QB/WR connection coming through will push the Packers on to the next round.


James: Packers

Vince: Packers

Zach: Packers

Patrick: Packers

Ryan: Packers

Maher: Rams



#5 Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ #2 Buffalo Bills (13-3)


Current Lines: Bills -2.5 || O/U 50


Baltimore was slept on heavily heading into the postseason due to the inconsistencies on offense throughout the year. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson quickly proved he’s not just a regular season star as he earned his first playoff dub last week with 315 total yards and went 17/24 through the air. Baltimore's defense stepped it up big time, holding the dangerous Titans offense to just 13 points and just 215 yards. They absolutely stuffed star running back Derrick Henry, the top back in the league averaged 126.7 yards per game this year, Baltimore held him to just 40 with 2.2 yards per carry. The Ravens rush attack is by far the league's best, averaging 191.9 per game in the regular season. Last week they ran the ball right down Tennessee’s throat for 236 yards and 2 TD’s. Lamar is going to have to use the RPO very efficiently and execute on play action play’s to create openings and keep Buffalo on their heels.


The Buffalo Bills had a scare last week against Indy including some questionable calls from the ref’s late in the game. Josh Allen has been playing like a man possessed as of late, leading Buffalo to a 7 game win streak and their first playoff victory since 1995. Allen threw for 324 yards and had 3 total TD’s in the 27-24 victory. The Bills were 3rd in pass yards per game and scored the 2nd most points a game at 31.3, their receiving corps are led by the league leader in receptions, Stefon Diggs. Diggs had 200 more yards than any other guy in the league this year, he torched Indy last week for 128 yards and 1 TD. Running back Devin Singletary will see an increased workload now that Zack Moss will be sidelined the rest of the season, Singletary ran for just 21 yards on 3 carries last week. The Bills defense had 26 takeaways on the year but failed to produce a big play on Saturday, giving up 472 yards to the Colts. Just like Green Bay the Bills need to slow down the run, their explosive offense needs to put it on Baltimore early and force Lamar to throw.


James: Bills

Vince: Bills

Zach: Bills

Patrick: Bills

Ryan: Ravens

Maher: Bills



#6 Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)


Current Lines: KC -9.0 || O/U 56.5


Cleveland has emerged as the early Cinderella favorite in the playoffs after a jaw dropping performance in their 48-37 win over Pittsburgh. This game was chippy from the get go and this did nothing but fuel Cleveland, as they picked Big Ben off 4 times and had a defensive touchdown. This was crucial as they came up with these big plays mostly on their side of the field. Pittsburgh marched down the field all night before crucial mistakes, they finished with an insane 553 yards. Cleveland played a fantastic offensive game, all game finishing with 390 yards and 5 TD’s. Cleveland has the best running back duo in the league with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Both backs finished in the top 10 of PPR fantasy scoring at RB, and both can hurt you in different ways. The Browns are great at protecting the football and limiting turnovers, averaging less than 1.0 per game, if they can get King Mahomes out of his comfort zone, dominate field position, and take care of the ball they’ll be in line for a shocker this Sunday.


The Kansas City Chiefs are back in action this weekend, and after Mahomes and co sat out week 17 they’re ready to unleash the NFL’s best offense on the Browns. Entering the Divisional Round of the playoffs as -9.0 favorites just shows how good the reigning superbowl champs have been this year. Kansas City averaged 29.6 points per game this year along with a league high 415.8 yards per game. Mahomes was again a top QB The Chiefs offense was lethal last year, the only knock heading into the season was how well they would run the ball. They fixed that problem grabbing Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the draft, and signing former all pro Le'veon Bell in the season. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are an absolutely deadly duo, Kelce was clearly the top TE this year, and Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest guy’s in the NFL. The big question this week will be how does Kansas City plan on slowing down the run game. They gave up 122 rush yards per game in the regular season, and are going to have to find a way to create pressure on the edges in order to advance.


James: Chiefs

Vince: Chiefs

Zach: Chiefs

Patrick: Browns

Ryan: Chiefs

Maher: Chiefs


#5 Tampa Bay Bucs (11-5) @ #2 New Orleans Saints (12-4)


Current Lines: NO -3.0 || O/U 52


Photo Via: @TomBrady / Twitter


This is the most interesting matchup of the weekend for me. Social media has been letting Tom Brady (43) and Drew Brees (42) have it with the age jokes heading into this matchup, most notably the history channel meme above. The Bucs under Tom Brady evolved to one of the league's top offenses. The amount of big time names in this receiving corps is baffling including Antonio Brown, Gronk, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. Brady has his weapons down in Tampa and made the most of his opportunity this year finishing with 4,633 yards and 40 TD’s. Brady was also excellent last week as he racked up 381 yards and 2 TD’s in the 31-23 win over Washington. The surprise from the Bucs offense came from Leonard Fournette, who was forced to step up due to Ronald Jones’s injury. Fournette finished with 93 rushing yards and a TD last week and is due for some volume this week as well as Ronald Jones is still questionable. Tampa Bay also features one of the league's toughest front 7’s and an immaculate run defense. They gave up just 80.6 rush yards per game this year, and just 86 in last week's win. They’ll need to hope playoff Brady is in full effect and shut down Alvin Kamara at the line of scrimmage if they want to pull off the revenge upset this weekend.


The Saints are 2-0 against the Bucs this season with a point differential of +44 in those two contests. They clearly have ownage over this new look Bucs squad and after their dominant 21-9 win last week are favored by 3 points to take the 3-0 season sweep. Brees and his rib injury is alarming for Saints fans as he’s obviously still playing hurt after fracturing 11 ribs earlier this season, still he was able to put on a solid playoff performance against the Bears throwing for 265 yards and 2 TD’s. He found Michael Thomas 5 times for 73 yards and checked down significantly less than I expected. Kamara is one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the league, he put on a show this christmas with 6 TD’s and didn’t disappoint last week rushing for 99 yards and a TD against a tough Bears defense. The Saints defense gave up the 5th least points per game this year, and also own one of the league's best rush defenses. Their secondary will have their work cut out for them against Tom Brady’s air raid, but we’ve seen them stop it before (38-3 victory in week 9). Forcing Tom Brady and the Bucs to long 3rd downs and letting Kamara and MT work are the name of the game for New Orleans this week, this is going to be a good one.


James: Saints

Vince: Bucs

Zach: Saints

Patrick: Saints

Ryan: Saints

Maher: Saints



- Ryan Mobley, Upside Play



* Stats Via: TeamRankings.com


* Cover Photo Via: Matt Ludtke | AP

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